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Are fears over the DfT’s Atkins Report on 20mph limits unfounded?

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Controversial 20mph speed limits in residential streets may not bring any significant improvement in road safety, a report commissioned by the Department for Transport has found. However, are fears reflected in media reportage unfounded?

In 2007 Portsmouth became the first city in the UK to introduce a scheme whereby all residential streets would be subject to a 20mph speed limit. 20mph zones swiftly followed in Newcastle upon Tyne, Oxford, Edinburgh and Bristol, with towns and cities across Britain planning to introduce the Government backed limits, claiming that they will cut the toll of deaths on the road.

However, analysis by consultants Atkins, on behalf of the Department for Transport, found that the average number of people killed or seriously injured annually in Portsmouth rose from 18.7 to 19.9 after the scheme was launched in 2007.

This finding has resulted in concern across the media and similar blogging sites that the controversial 20mph speed limits now being introduced throughout Britain may not bring any significant improvement in road safety. Yet are their fears unfounded? I suggest they might be, for three reasons.

First, whilst previous studies found that 20mph zones deployed alongside traffic-calming and enforcement measures produce reductions in average speed, the limit in Portsmouth is not enforced by speed humps or cameras and instead relies on self-regulation. It would therefore be no surprise if mere signs did not result in dramatic changes (although it is notable that Swindon, for example, reported a sharp drop in the number of accidents over the past year after speed cameras were switched off).

Secondly, and on a related point, according to Atkins, the average speed of motorists as measured at 223 locations across the city did in fact drop by 1.3pmh from 19.8mph to 18.5mph as a result of the scheme. Taking into account people with less serious injuries, overall road casualties fell by 22 per cent after the scheme was introduced. It would hardly be unreasonable to correlate the two results, and conclude that the scheme has resulted in reduced speeds, fewer casualties, and therefore enhanced road safety.

Finally it has been suggested that it would in fact be unwise to draw any conclusions from the report. Atkins could only draw on three years of road safety data to compile its results – therefore anomalously high or low casualty figures either side of the introduction of the scheme could easily distort results. Indeed any reduction in casualties should be considered in light of the fact that, over the same time period, there was a nationwide fall in road casualties of 14 per cent. It is also notable that independent statisticians have criticised the way that the figures had been calculated, citing incorrect usage of statistical terminology and the lack of a control group. This report by an independent contractor is only one of a number of research documents available to help councils, and relates to a single scheme with its own discrete issues.

In view of the above, I would suggest that it would be naive to jump to conclusions.

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